RESEARCH STUDY: 2000 - 2025

Trend Masters

Deciphering 25 years of stock market data to identify the sectors and stocks that perform best with Moving Average Strategies (SMA 50/200).

🚀 Executive Summary

✓ Technology is King: High-beta sectors like Tech and Semis (NVDA) offer the best sustained trends for this strategy.
✓ Low Win Rate, High Reward: The strategy only wins ~38% of the time, but the wins are 3x-5x larger than the losses.
✓ The 200 SMA Filter: Buying only when price is above the 200-day average successfully avoided the 2000 and 2008 crashes in our simulation.

The Logic: Golden Cross

The core strategy revolves around the interaction between short-term (50-day) and long-term (200-day) Moving Averages. Unlike complex algorithms, this simple mechanical filter captures major institutional money flows.

The Setup

Wait for 50-day SMA to cross above 200-day SMA.

The Signal

"Golden Cross" confirmed. Buy position initiated.

The Ride

Hold until price closes below the 200 SMA.

Sector Suitability

Tech & Consumer Disc. score highest for trend following.

Top Performing Stocks (CAGR)

Nvidia and Apple vastly outperform the benchmark using this strategy.

Simulation: Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

Drawdown Protection Trend strategies avoided the worst of the 2000 and 2008 crashes by being in "Cash".

The Cost During V-shaped recoveries (like 2020), trend strategies lag slightly due to late entries.

*Data based on backtested simulations 2000-2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trend Masters: 25-Year Research on Moving Average Strategies (Golden Cross)